Signal>Noise

Signal>Noise

The Firefighter's Paradox: Why Your Best Decisions Feel Like Guesses

And why I'm transforming this newsletter to help you extract what you can't explain

Max Bernstein's avatar
Max Bernstein
Jul 18, 2025
∙ Paid
1
Share

The fire commander arrived at a routine kitchen fire. Something felt wrong.

He couldn't explain why. The fire looked normal. His crew was attacking it normally. But something in his gut screamed danger.

"Everyone out. NOW."

Seconds after his crew evacuated, the floor collapsed. The "kitchen fire" was actually a basement inferno. The floor they'd been stand…

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Signal>Noise to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Max Bernstein
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture